What 14 Years of Data Says About XRP November Performance

XRP closed October 2026 at -16%. That number alone tells part of the story. Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto went deeper, pulling 14 years of XRP price data to assess what that close historically means for November.

October 2026 ranked as the 4th worst October in XRP’s recorded history. Only three Octobers performed worse: 2013 at -44.8%, 2018 at -22.9%, and 2024 at -16.6%.

Red Octobers and What Followed

In his X post, Egrag Crypto examined 13 completed years of October-to-November price action, from 2013 through 2025. The results split nearly evenly. Seven of those 13 years produced a red November, representing 53.8%. Six produced a green November, at 46.2%.

By frequency alone, history slightly favors another red November in 2026.

#XRP – RED OCTOBER, RED or GREEN NOVEMBER? NUMBERS DON'T LIE!

14 YEARS OF DATA. ONE BIG QUESTION!

October 2026 closed at −16%, ranking as the 4TH WORST OCTOBER in XRP's history since 2013!
🥇 2013: −44.8% 🔴
🥈 2018: −22.9% 🔴
🥉 2024: −16.6% 🔴

WHAT HAPPENED AFTER A… pic.twitter.com/reSgmigawe

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) November 1, 2026

The Average vs. The Median

The data gets more complex when returns are measured. The median November return across all 13 years sits at -9.1%. The average, however, lands at +78.3%. That gap is significant.

Egrag Crypto explains the discrepancy. Four explosive Novembers completely skewed the average upward: 2013 at +489.1%, 2014 at +148.2%, 2020 at +179.2%, and 2024 at +282.9%.

Those four outliers pull the mean far above where most Novembers actually finished.

The Pattern Inside Red Octobers

Three of XRP’s previous red Octobers fed directly into some of the asset’s strongest Novembers on record. The 2013 October decline of -44.8% preceded a +489.1% November. The 2020 October gave way to a +179.2% gain the following month. The 2024 October drop of -16.6% was followed by a +282.9% November.

Egrag Crypto notes this pattern but stops short of using it as a direct forecast.

Egrag Crypto’s November 2026 Outlook

The analyst splits his November 2026 outlook into two phases. He projects “potential weakness, consolidation & final shakeout” in the first 15 days. He then anticipates a “strong bullish reversal and potentially EXPLOSIVE momentum” in the second half of the month.

His stated bias: “WEAK FIRST HALF, STRONG SECOND HALF.”

Egrag Crypto closes his analysis with a line that captures his approach to the data. “MEN LIE. WOMEN LIE. CHARTS & NUMBERS DON’T LIE.”

Whether November 2026 follows the majority or joins the outliers, the historical record gives XRP traders a clear framework to watch.