Bitcoin Price Defends Key Level as Crypto Rides Out Midterms

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin rebounded from a $75,736 intraday low.

Top altcoins all rose over 24 hours.

Traders largely expected the Democratic Senate win.

Official results and House call still pending.

The Associated Press called the Senate for Democrats late on November 3. At the time of writing, the House had not been called, and no result is official until states finish counting and certify the vote.

Crypto went in braced for a Democratic Congress

A day before the vote, CNBC described the midterms as a test of whether Trump’s regulatory shift on crypto becomes durable law or stays exposed to the next administration. For an industry whose market structure bill had already stalled in the Senate, that was the core fear, and the results have since narrowed the CLARITY Act’s path to 60 votes.

Analysts quoted overnight described the same concern. TDX Strategies founder Dick Lo told CoinDesk that a Democratic-controlled Congress is generally seen as less favorable for pro-crypto legislation. Vantage Point Asset Management chief investment officer Nick Ferres told Reuters that the main risk from a sweep lay in greater regulation of the AI and crypto complex.

The outcome the industry feared was also the one most traders expected. Paradigm’s Nicolas Quatravaux told CoinDesk that Polymarket had put a Democratic win above 75% for some time. In his view, the overnight move had more to do with uncertainty clearing than with any surprise. Siebert Financial chief investment officer Mark Malek made a similar point to Reuters: much of the result was already factored in, and the real shock would have been unexpected Republican gains.

Options activity pointed the same way. On election day, Paradigm handled about $660 million in notional bitcoin options blocks, more than double the previous day. Roughly $420 million of calls, which pay off if prices rise, were bought against about $105 million sold, Quatravaux told CoinDesk.

The argument for a split Washington

Not everyone reads the result as a loss for crypto. With Trump in the White House and Democrats running at least the Senate from January, Washington will again have divided government. Lo told CoinDesk that this setup makes major, market-unfriendly policy shifts unlikely, while Trump keeps executive orders and his veto as tools.

Several strategists quoted by Reuters took a similar view. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Tai Hui said the general consensus is that divided government tends to keep fiscal deficits more controlled. Monex Group’s Jesper Koll doubted that a Democratic Congress would change much in practice under a president who governs largely through executive orders. State Street Global Advisors’ Michael Arone said the bigger danger for markets was investors overreacting to the blue wave, not the wave itself.

What the overnight calm does not tell us

It is too early to treat the reaction as final. The House remains uncalled, certification is still ahead, and crypto was not the only market reacting. U.S. stock futures fell while Treasury yields and the dollar slipped as results came in, Reuters reported. Nasdaq futures later recovered most of their early losses, according to CoinDesk.

Fund flows are the other open question. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs lost about $515 million in October and roughly the same amount in the first two trading days of November, SoSoValue data shows. Whether the result was fully priced in becomes easier to judge once the counts are official and those flows show which way investors are leaning.

Bitcoin price: below the 0.382 Fib and back

Bitcoin’s daily candle on Binance opened at $77,454 and stood at $77,988 at 07:03 UTC, up 0.69% on the session and +2% for the past 24H, with nearly 17 hours left before the candle closes.

The session first moved the other way. Sellers pushed price below the 100-day SMA at $76,850 and through the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $76,066. The wick reached $75,736, about $330 below the Fib line, before buyers stepped in. From that low, price climbed $2,428 to a session high of $78,164 on 6.46K BTC of volume, back above both the 0.382 level and the 100-day SMA.

Momentum has improved but has not turned. The daily RSI (14) reads 40.71, a fraction under its signal line at 40.80 and still below the 50 midpoint, so the bounce has not produced a crossover.

The day’s range leaves a trigger on either side of the price:

If buyers keep control

Price holds above the 100-day SMA at $76,850 and clears today’s $78,164 high.

• First test: the 0.236 Fib around $80,403, alongside the $80,000 round number
• Next: the 50-day SMA at $82,013, the main overhead trend ceiling
• Range top: the 0 level near $87,413

If the bounce fails

A daily close below the 0.382 Fib near $76,066 and today’s $75,736 low would undo the rebound.

• First demand zone: the 200-day SMA at $73,219 and the 0.5 Fib near $72,561
• Deeper support: the 0.618 Fib close to $69,056

For context, even after today’s bounce, Bitcoin trades below its 50-day SMA, and the top of its Fibonacci range sits about 12% above the current price.

Top altcoins: 24-hour moves

CoinMarketCap data showed the largest cryptocurrencies all trading higher over 24 hours at the time of writing.

24-hour change, largest to smallest

CoinMarketCap, November 4, 07:22 UTC · # shows market-cap rank

#9
Zcash ZEC
$1,268
+12.2% #11
Monero XMR
$643
+5.3% #2
Ethereum ETH
$2,292
+2.2% #5
XRP XRP
$1.27
+1.99% #1
Bitcoin BTC
$77,813
+1.8% #7
Solana SOL
$93
+1.46% #10
Hyperliquid HYPE
$84
+1.3% #12
Dogecoin DOGE
$0.0746
+1.3% #4
BNB BNB
$700
+1.19% #8
TRON TRX
$0.3216
+0.49%

Zcash and Monero, the two privacy coins on the list, pulled well ahead of everything else. The rest of the large caps moved within a narrow band, and TRON posted the smallest gain.