Polymarket Investigates Dozens of Bets Tied to US Midterm Elections

Polymarket has investigated dozens of bets linked to the US midterm elections, with at least two cases referred to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to a report by NPR.

Shana Bautista, Polymarket’s head of global intelligence and investigations, reportedly told NPR that her 16-member team is monitoring election-related trading ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. A person familiar with the investigations reportedly said at least two had been referred to the CFTC but was not authorized to discuss them publicly.

The investigations come as Polymarket and rival Kalshi attract growing interest in prediction markets, where users trade contracts tied to the outcomes of political races and other events. Both platforms have faced scrutiny over whether people with access to nonpublic campaign information could use it to profit from election bets.

Polymarket prohibits insider trading under its terms of use. Kalshi has also stepped up enforcement. The company said in July that it had blocked dozens of campaign staffers from trading on election outcomes, following earlier restrictions on political candidates betting on themselves.

However, NPR reported that at least one staffer had found a way around the platform’s controls.

The scrutiny adds to wider legal and political pressure on prediction markets as regulators and lawmakers debate how the industry should be supervised.

The dispute intensified last month, when the 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Ohio and Tennessee could apply state gambling laws to Kalshi’s sports contracts, rejecting its argument that federal commodities law shields the products from state oversight.

The decision followed an August ruling by the 9th Circuit against Kalshi in a Nevada case, while the 3rd Circuit had previously ruled in the company’s favor in a dispute with New Jersey.

The conflicting decisions have raised the prospect of a US Supreme Court showdown.