Is Bitcoin Rising After the Elections? Historical Data Shows 53%! Here’s All the Data

Bitcoin has risen by an average of 53.7% in the 12 months following the last three US midterm elections. However, limited data and the halving cycle complicate the picture.

As the US midterm elections on November 3rd approach, Bitcoin’s performance during past election periods has resurfaced. Bitcoin gained an average of 53.7% in value during the 12-month periods following the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections.

Bitcoin has only seen four US midterm elections since its launch in 2009. In the 12 months following the 2010 election, the price rose by approximately 1,579%, but the Bitcoin market at that time was extremely small and had low liquidity. Therefore, the 2010 data was excluded from the average calculation.

While it’s interesting to see positive returns in all three past periods, the sample size is quite limited to reach a strong statistical conclusion. Furthermore, the post-election rallies may have stemmed not directly from political outcomes, but from Bitcoin’s four-year mining reward halving cycle.

Bitcoin has historically experienced strong rallies after halvings, peaking approximately 12-18 months before entering a bear market. The fact that the declines in 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026 coincided with the US midterm elections may have strengthened the image of a post-election recovery.

Data from traditional markets covers a longer period. The S&P 500 Index has risen by an average of 15.17 percent in the 12 months following midterm elections since 1950. The average increase in other years has been around 7.30 percent.

The 2026 elections could alter the balance of power in the US Congress. If the Democrats win at least one chamber, it could lead to more intense scrutiny of federal debt, defense spending, and President Donald Trump’s crypto connections.

Past performance does not guarantee a repeat of the same outcome in the future. Bitcoin’s post-election trajectory will also be determined by Fed policy, ETF demand, liquidity conditions, and overall risk appetite.